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Restricted Choice - An evaluation tactic relying on the mathematical
probabilities to determine an opponent's holding in a given suit.
Essentially, the Restricted Choice principle states that when a specific opponent's
play indicates a choice of equal plays, the other opponent is
likely to have a fewer cards in the given suit.
Normally,
declarer plays for the HQ to drop according to the Rule of 9.
However, when cashing the HK, West immediately plays the HQ.
While West could also hold the HJ, a 50% occurrence, playing the
HQ from a singleton holding would be a 100% likelihood.
From a
mathematical average, West has a singleton 75% of the time.
According to the principle of restricted choice, Declarer should now
finesse East for the HJ.
Card Distribution
(remaining two hands)
Hand Distribution
(suits within a hand)
High Card Point Count (HCPs in one hand)
Miscellaneous Probabilities
(assorted interesting odds)
Number of Cards (card quantity in
a suit)
Posteriori Probability (example
when additional information is known)
Suit Combinations (best lead and
plays)
Expected Controls (based on HCP)
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K 9 x x
